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NL East Winner: New York Mets Why theyll win the division: In short, the Mets will win the division because theyve simply dominated it so far in 2006. As of this writing, they hold a 12-game lead on the second-place Phillies and theyre not showing any signs of slowing down. They have very good pitching, timely hitting and a team chasing them that isnt showing many signs of life. The only word of caution that needs to be heeded by the Mets is that sometimes teams that coast into the postseason can be surprised in the first round of the playoffs, especially if they meet a team thats been battling to qualify. Regardless, the Mets have time to worry about that possibility. NL Central Winner: St. Louis Cardinals Why theyll win the division: The Cardinals are going to win the NL Central for a few reasons. First, they have the best team, and in a 162-game season, there are very few anomalies that can play above their heads for that long. Second, theyre getting hot at the right time, winning seven in a row as of this writing, while their competition, the Reds, continue to fade after a hot start. The Cardinals also have slightly better pitching and hitting than their divisional competition. The Cardinals wont clinch too early, but they will clinch. NL West Winner: San Diego Padres Why theyll win the division: The Padres not only have history on their side, but theyll also be pushed throughout the season. The Padres have never failed to qualify for the postseason after leading the division at the All Star break, which is where they are in 2006. They also play in a mediocre division where no team is a threat to go off on a tear in the second half. However, their lead is slim, and the Dodgers will remain within striking distance through the rest of the season, forcing the Padres to keep the pedal to the metal through the last week of the season. Wild Card: Los Angeles Dodgers Why theyll win the Wild Card race: The Dodgers will qualify for the postseason more because of what their competition doesnt have than what the Dodgers bring to the table. The Reds, who currently lead in the Wild Card standings, have a tough second-half schedule and lack the consistent pitching needed to hold their lead. The Phillies, Brewers and Astros are too inconsistent and/or inexperienced in general to mount serious challenges, and the Dodgers will continue to press the Padres for the NL West crown as that division will remain competitive throughout the season. This is how things should shape up in 2006, and the next time we revisit this subject, well analyze how the rest of the postseason will unfold. |
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